NEW DATA: After Years of Election Denial, Decreased Voter Confidence in Elections Impacted 2024 Turnout Across Parties

WASHINGTON — The States United Democracy Center today published new research that finds up to 5.7 million additional votes may have been cast in the 2024 general election if voter confidence levels had been higher. This would have increased total turnout, for voters of all party affiliations, by 3-3.7 percentage points. The research reveals that Americans are more likely to vote when they feel confident about the accuracy of election results.

“We’ve known for years how dangerous election lies can be—and now we have the data to back that up,” said Joanna Lydgate, CEO of the States United Democracy Center. “It’s a simple but important fact: when people trust elections, they vote. All of our leaders have a responsibility to rebuild that trust and participation by telling the truth about our free, fair, secure elections.”

The report, When Americans Trust Elections, They Are More Likely To Vote, is the first of its kind, comparing pre-election survey responses from over 1,110 Americans across the country to their verified voting records from the 2024 general election. It provides fresh insight into what motivates voter participation, how public trust is formed, and what’s at stake when that trust is undermined. Key findings include:

• Confidence drives turnout. Americans who felt more confident that their vote would count as intended were significantly more likely to cast a ballot in the 2024 general election.
• The impact is measurable. If all voters had the highest level of confidence, turnout could have increased by 3.0 to 3.7 percentage points—or roughly 4.7 to 5.7 million additional votes.
• The pattern holds across party lines. The link between confidence and turnout was consistent among Democrats, Republicans, and independents—especially strong among independents.
• Trust gaps can decide elections. The number of voters deterred by low confidence exceeds the margin of victory in many key races at both the state and federal level.

“This research is the first to examine verified voting records from the 2024 election to gain tangible insights on the impact of the election denial movement on voter behavior,” said Kelly Rader, Research Director at the States United Democracy Center. “By linking how people felt before the election with what they did on election day, we’ve demonstrated just how critical voter confidence is to turnout. And this isn’t just a correlation—it’s a call to action. If we want to strengthen our democracy and push back against election lies successfully, we all need to be aware of this threat and work to rebuild public trust in the system.”

Read the full report here.

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About the States United Democracy Center

States United is a nonpartisan organization that helps state officials on the front lines of democracy protect the rule of law and free, fair, secure elections. We connect state officials, law enforcement leaders, and pro-democracy partners across America with the tools and expertise they need to safeguard our democracy. For more information, visit statesunited.org.