Expert Marks the Spot

When you see “expert reports” that claim to show evidence of election fraud, it’s a good idea to check under the hood. These claims are frequently based on unreliable data, junk science, or faulty reasoning. Often, the authors aren’t experts in the field. Upon closer inspection, the claims fall apart.

Fake reports and false claims played a part in the failed plot to overturn the 2020 election, which led to the Jan. 6 insurrection. They were often cited in court papers in an attempt to make frivolous lawsuits look credible, and they were circulated on social media to stir up doubts about election security and make election-related conspiracies seem more believable. But these weren’t substantiated lawsuits raising real claims. Rather, they were press releases dressed up as lawsuits to get headlines. We can expect more of the same in 2024.

So how can you spot bad election data? Justin Grimmer, a professor of political science at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, recently joined States United to explain what to look out for. Dr. Grimmer is a real expert, with decades of experience in elections. He has served as an elections research expert in many legal cases, including some related to the 2020 election, and has published extensively on American politics and elections.

Among the red flags that may indicate a fake report:

• The author isn’t an expert in elections, voting, or anything related, or the report lists no author at all.
• The report doesn’t say how or where its data came from.
• The report doesn’t have a detailed methodology section that explains how the analysis was conducted.
• The report makes claims about supposedly abnormal data, but it doesn’t establish what the normal pattern should be.
• The report cites new and untested methodologies that haven’t been proven to detect fraud.

So, beware if you see sketchy reports like these in the weeks ahead. They’re just one more way to undermine fair and accurate elections.

This Week in Democracy

• The Georgia Supreme Court rejected an attempt to reinstate a rule passed by the State Election Board that would have required all ballots cast in the state on Election Day to be counted by hand. States United filed a friend-of-the-court brief arguing that the Supreme Court should prevent the rule from going into effect, since hand counts impose significant delays, costs, and risks.

  ➡️ READ: Our briefs and our report on the risks of hand counts

• The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that election officials must count voters’ provisional ballots if their mail-in ballots were rejected because of errors. “[W]e are at a loss to identify what honest voting principle is violated by recognizing the validity of one ballot cast by one voter,” the justices wrote. Pennsylvania voters can check the status of their mail-in ballots at this link.
• In Arizona, former Cochise County Supervisor Peggy Judd pleaded guilty to charges related to her refusal to certify election results in 2022. “Any attempt to interfere with elections in Arizona will not be tolerated,” Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes said in a statement. “My office will continue to pursue justice and ensure that anyone who undermines our electoral system is held accountable.”
• Rudy Giuliani was ordered to turn over his New York apartment and a long list of personal belongings to two Georgia election workers whom he defamed after the 2020 election. A jury awarded the workers $148 million in damages in December because of the harassment and threats they faced as a result of the lies that Giuliani spread about them.
• With 11 days to go until the November election, nearly 30 million Americans have already cast their ballots, whether by mail or in person. You can find information about how, when, and where to vote in your state at CanIVote.org.

  ➡️ EXPLORE: CanIVote.org

State of the States

In Michigan and North Carolina, judges rejected coordinated attempts to challenge the eligibility of voters living abroad, including members of the U.S. military and their families.

Judge Sima Patel wrote that the effort in Michigan, brought by the Republican National Committee, was an “11th hour attempt” to disenfranchise voters. Patel also noted that the law being challenged has been in place since 2017. There is “no ground to invalidate” the existing rules governing Michigan’s overseas voters, especially this close to the election, she wrote.

“The plaintiffs waited far too long to bring these claims,” Michigan Assistant Attorney General Erik Grill said. “This election is underway. … We shouldn’t be changing the rules for this election two-and-a-half weeks ahead of time.”

In North Carolina, Superior Court Judge John Smith wrote that there is “absolutely no evidence” that any person has ever fraudulently voted from overseas, as the RNC claimed.

“This court should not … treat an entire group of citizens differently based upon unsupported and speculative allegations for which there is not even a scintilla of substantive evidence,” he wrote.

The Republican National Committee has said that it will appeal both rulings.

Clip of the Week

States United and Issue One teamed up to support and recognize women election officials in a new digital campaign. The campaign includes a video that emphasizes the critical and often under-recognized role that women play in the election process. You can watch the video below.