Blogs, Memo, Trend Analysis Published May 18, 2026

The Threats to the Midterm Elections

Issue Areas
  • Election Protection

In This Resource
Overview

President Trump has made a political career out of spreading election lies. What began in 2016 as false campaign rhetoric about voter fraud exploded after the 2020 election, when he refused to accept defeat. Now back in power, Trump is using the force of the federal government to try to seize control over our free and fair elections.

We know the president will go to extreme lengths and push the limits of his office to keep power for himself and his allies. Authoritarian governments rarely abolish elections; they interfere with them slowly but surely so they can maintain a facade of democracy. We are watching this backsliding play out right now in the United States.

But in this country, states run elections—not the president. So, with the November midterms swiftly approaching, states are the best line of defense against the unprecedented and existential threat Trump poses to our democracy.

The Trump administration’s attack on elections has three key components:

1. Control the plot: Create fertile ground for the American people to accept a federal takeover by spreading lies about the trustworthiness of our elections.

2. Control the process: Use the power of the federal government to challenge the election administration process and dismantle state authority over elections.

3. Control the players: Eliminate checks on your power by attacking those who stand up to you and installing anti-democracy actors in key positions.

The endgame of controlling the plot, process, and players, of course, is to stay in power. But states won’t let Trump do that without a fight. Governors, attorneys general, and secretaries of state are the antidote to the Trump administration’s efforts to undermine our elections.

Control the Plot

Trump has maximized the power of the bully pulpit to control Americans’ perception of elections. For years, the president has spread disinformation about elections—falsely claiming he won in 2020, casting doubt on the security of mail voting and voting machines, and promoting unfounded claims about voter fraud.

Once he retook the White House in 2025, Trump began using the legitimacy of the federal government to reinforce these lies. For example, when the FBI raided election offices in Fulton County, Georgia, and Maricopa County, Arizona, those investigations were based on conspiracy theories—but came with the full force of federal authority behind them.

And at the same time, Trump is targeting the free press and free speech. His administration has sought to prosecute or punish those who speak out (such as journalist Don Lemon or Sen. Mark Kelly); used federal regulators to threaten networks that broadcast coverage Trump deems unfavorable; and slashed funding for public broadcasting. The president is also a majority owner in the social media platform Truth Social, giving him a vast, unchecked platform.

At the same time, Trump has manufactured crises to stoke chaos and give Americans the impression that federal intervention is necessary, including by deploying thousands of state National Guardsmen and federal agents to cities across the country.

Control the Process

Through litigation and anti-voter legislation across the country, Trump and his allies are trying to change state laws that give Americans access to mail and early voting; ensure local officials maintain control of running elections; and preserve fair congressional maps. Trump wants to make it harder to vote, under the guise of security.

On top of that, the administration is trying to seize more election powers for itself, through far-reaching executive action. The president has signed two unconstitutional executive orders claiming vast authority over elections. The latest executive order seeks to control the list of who can vote by mail. The U.S. Department of Justice has also sued dozens of states to seize voters’ private information and raided election offices.

Control the Players

The final component of Trump’s playbook is to eliminate checks on his power.

He has deployed the National Guard over governors’ objections and sent federal agents into cities without notifying local law enforcement—a pattern that shows he’s willing to use armed personnel to carry out his policies.

Pro-democracy state leaders who stand in the president’s way and serve as a check on his power have been attacked through politicized criminal investigations; have had their state’s federal funding stripped; and have had their lives threatened.

And the president is attempting to reshape the judiciary by criticizing and threatening judges who rule against him.

Meanwhile, the same people who perpetuated the lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen now hold positions of power within the administration, installed by Trump. But they’re not just at the federal level. Election Deniers are also running for statewide office to oversee elections in 2028.

What’s Next

As Trump’s favorability continues to decline, we can expect his election interference efforts to intensify.

There are several nightmare scenarios that could play out this year. Here’s what states are preparing for:

The president could invoke emergency powers to justify federal control over elections. States will litigate this action swiftly, as they have in response to the president’s two election-related executive orders.

Federal law enforcement could seize voting materials and equipment on or immediately after Election Day. The investigations in Arizona and Georgia faced immediate pushback in the courts, and states will challenge future raids based in election lies to stand up for their authority.

The president could deploy federal agents to polling places. Through lawsuits, states were able to contain the National Guard deployments in California, Illinois, Oregon, Maine, and Minnesota. States will challenge any further action from the administration to militarize streets in our communities.

The Trump administration and state and local allies could challenge election results. The courts held strong in the 2020, 2022, and 2024 elections and are likely to do so this time around. Just as we saw in 2022 and 2024, local officials must be held accountable, ensuring they follow election laws and certify results in a timely fashion.

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